Canadiens vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$1.5K
-$10.5
54.6¢ → 54.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmm | Overavg 55¢ | $904.76 | $888.31 | -$16.45 | 54% 2298-1976 (4274) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 54¢ | $563.76 | $568.98 | +$5.22 | 55% 6994-5612 (12606) |
 Reformedx<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $64.79 | $65.39 | +$0.6 | 52% 805-755 (1560) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $17.82 | $17.99 | +$0.17 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $3.85 | $3.78 | -$0.03 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
Invested
$904.76
Value
$888.31
PnL
-$16.45
Record
54%
2298-1976 (4274)
0xheavy888Invested
$563.76
Value
$568.98
PnL
+$5.22
Record
55%
6994-5612 (12606)
Reformedx<$100Invested
$64.79
Value
$65.39
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
805-755 (1560)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$17.99
PnL
+$0.17
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.