Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Stars, while the market favors Canadiens (58%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (60%) · Stars at 42¢ · $342 held · ended Oct 30

Canadiens58¢Stars42¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stars

Consensus Traders

Stars 60%

Total Value

$342.07

Combined PnL

-$36.96

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 42¢

-22% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralStars at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stars

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 58%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens58%

Stars42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stars6 traders

Total Value$268.57

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$29.38

Canadiens4 traders

Total Value$73.5

Total Shares596

Combined PnL-$7.58

Stars — 60%Canadiens — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Starsavg 54¢	$193.93	$168.83	-$25.1	—
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Canadiensavg 12¢	$68.22	$68.22	+$0	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Starsavg 54.9¢	$44.93	$43	-$1.93	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Starsavg 66¢	$21.69	$19.28	-$2.41	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Starsavg 48.8¢	$19.5	$18.8	-$0.7	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Starsavg 44.2¢	$11	$11.7	+$0.7	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
RN1CTR<$100	Starsavg 58¢	$6.9	$6.96	+$0.06	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
HRTrading<$100	Canadiensavg 48¢	$2.94	$2.7	-$0.24	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
78 0x7860...ab46<$100	Canadiensavg 47¢	$9.4	$2.4	-$7	86% 4948-822 (5770)
GH ghorrock<$100	Canadiensavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.18	-$0.34	57% 13416-10256 (23672)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Stars

Invested

$193.93

Value

$168.83

PnL

-$25.1

Record

—

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$68.22

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$44.93

Value

$43

PnL

-$1.93

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$21.69

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$2.41

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$11

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.7

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

RN1CTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

HRTrading<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

0x7860...ab46<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$9.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$7

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

ghorrock<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.34

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

Research grade

NeutralStars at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Stars

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 58%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.