Canadiens vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 56¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 13

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$239.46

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,303

Combined PnL+$61.08

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,900

Combined PnL+$178.37

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI sinasinner	Underavg 55¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$61.3	— 6-11 (17)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 45¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$108.97	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$44.06	37% 37-62 (99)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$469.8	$485.46	+$15.66	54% 278-237 (515)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45¢	$211.58	$218.63	+$7.05	46% 440-515 (955)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$69.75	$72.08	+$2.33	40% 78-117 (195)
TA taylorsversion<$100	Underavg 54¢	$23.13	$22.91	-$0.21	53% 102-90 (192)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$10.92	$11.16	+$0.24	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.33	+$0.08	38% 492-810 (1302)

sinasinner

Under

Invested

$6,742.87

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$61.3

Record

—

6-11 (17)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,269

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$108.97

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,321.65

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$44.06

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$469.8

Value

$485.46

PnL

+$15.66

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$211.58

Value

$218.63

PnL

+$7.05

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.75

Value

$72.08

PnL

+$2.33

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

taylorsversion<$100

Under

Invested

$23.13

Value

$22.91

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

102-90 (192)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.