Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (43%) · Canadiens at 69¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Canadiens
7
Canadiens 43%
$25.7K
$0.86
68¢ → 68.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanadiens at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Canadiensavg 68¢ | $17.4K | $17.5K | +$128.03 | 51% 2054-1969 (4023) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Bruinsavg 32¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$125 | 53% 102-90 (192) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Bruinsavg 32¢ | $164.3 | $161.82 | -$2.48 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Canadiensavg 67.9¢ | $71.92 | $72.51 | +$0.59 | 54% 272-234 (506) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 32¢ | $14.4 | $14.18 | -$0.22 | 66% 1739-895 (2634) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Canadiensavg 68¢ | $21.04 | $10.84 | +$0 | 49% 1071-1128 (2199) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 32¢ | $3.85 | $3.79 | -$0.06 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
Invested
$17,412.23
Value
$17.5K
PnL
+$128.03
Record
51%
2054-1969 (4023)
Invested
$7,999.99
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$125
Record
53%
102-90 (192)
Invested
$164.3
Value
$161.82
PnL
-$2.48
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$71.92
Value
$72.51
PnL
+$0.59
Record
54%
272-234 (506)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.18
PnL
-$0.22
Record
66%
1739-895 (2634)
Invested
$21.04
Value
$10.84
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1071-1128 (2199)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.79
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.