Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Canadiens, while the market favors Bruins (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Canadiens vs. Bruins

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (67%) · Canadiens at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13

Canadiens47¢Bruins53¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 67%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$109.16

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 46.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Bruins 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens47%

Bruins54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens6 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,076

Combined PnL+$109.24

Bruins3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,697

Combined PnL-$0.08

Canadiens — 67%Bruins — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCanadiens 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$7.76	52% 372-342 (714)
AN AnonymousUsername	Bruinsavg 53¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$0	39% 43-66 (109)
RO royalestakeCTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$70	5% 10-187 (197)
VeryLucky888CTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$1.8K	$940.01	+$40	52% 836-757 (1593)
RO roldyCTR	Canadiensavg 46¢	$732.68	$740.65	+$7.96	— 8-10 (18)
rafaleaoo	Bruinsavg 53¢	$463.31	$463.31	+$0	3% 20-637 (657)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Canadiensavg 47¢	$80.73	$79.01	-$1.72	19% 18-79 (97)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 46¢	$34.84	$22.98	+$0.76	54% 1043-906 (1949)
SU suntori<$100	Bruinsavg 54¢	$4.43	$4.35	-$0.08	47% 1724-1982 (3706)

nigiri99CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$3,861.79

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$7.76

Record

52%

372-342 (714)

AnonymousUsername

Bruins

Invested

$3,611.93

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

43-66 (109)

royalestakeCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$3,219.93

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$70

Record

10-187 (197)

VeryLucky888CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$1,839.99

Value

$940.01

PnL

+$40

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

roldyCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$732.68

Value

$740.65

PnL

+$7.96

Record

—

8-10 (18)

rafaleaoo

Bruins

Invested

$463.31

Value

$463.31

PnL

+$0

Record

20-637 (657)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$80.73

Value

$79.01

PnL

-$1.72

Record

19%

18-79 (97)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$34.84

Value

$22.98

PnL

+$0.76

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

suntori<$100

Bruins

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Bruins 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCanadiens 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.