Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wild vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
$22.76
45.9¢ → 45¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 46.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$3.61 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 53¢ | $991.09 | $1.0K | +$9.35 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $450 | $455 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 44.9¢ | $373.72 | $378.38 | +$4.66 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $65.07 | $65.75 | +$0.25 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $41.85 | $42.32 | +$0.47 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $23.22 | $23.44 | -$0.22 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $12.72 | $12.86 | +$0.14 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$3.61
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$991.09
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.35
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
Invested
$450
Value
$455
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$373.72
Value
$378.38
PnL
+$4.66
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$65.07
Value
$65.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.72
Value
$12.86
PnL
+$0.14
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.