Wild vs. Utah: O/U 6.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$85.93

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 83.5¢

+59% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,704

Combined PnL+$85.88

Over2 traders

Total Value$72.88

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$0.05

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0	51% 839-794 (1633)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 53¢	$111.32	$196.23	+$84.91	53% 3091-2720 (5811)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$65.76	$65.76	+$0	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 76.4¢	$47.18	$48.15	+$0.97	53% 11428-9958 (21386)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 19.6¢	$7.07	$7.13	+$0.05	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$2,217.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

839-794 (1633)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$111.32

Value

$196.23

PnL

+$84.91

Record

53%

3091-2720 (5811)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.76

Value

$65.76

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$47.18

Value

$48.15

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

11428-9958 (21386)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.