Wild vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.5K
-$69.63
40.3¢ → 92.5¢
+129% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestake | Underavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$57.97 | 46% 366-422 (788) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 59¢ | $21.24 | $22.14 | +$0.9 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $31.99 | $19.24 | -$12.75 | 53% 3091-2720 (5811) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $1.17 | $1.85 | +$0.68 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $1.26 | $0.77 | -$0.49 | 59% 29970-20691 (50661) |
Invested
$1,545.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$57.97
Record
46%
366-422 (788)
Invested
$21.24
Value
$22.14
PnL
+$0.9
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
Invested
$31.99
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$12.75
Record
53%
3091-2720 (5811)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$0.49
Record
59%
29970-20691 (50661)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.