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poshposhARB<$100WildWild
HRTrading<$100UtahWildWild
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Wild — but Utah won instead.
Spread: Wild (-3.5)
Resolved Utah. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Wild. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Wild 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$262.88
Combined PnL
-$147.69
Smart Money Signal
Wild
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Wild0%
Utah100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Wild3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares643
Combined PnL-$164.42
Utah1 trader
Total Value$64.7
Total Shares65
Combined PnL+$16.73
Wild — 75%Utah — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
poshposhARB<$100 | Wildavg 25.2¢ | $341.36 | $198.18 | -$143.18 | 60% 9276-6223 (15499) |
| └ Wild leg | Wildavg 25.2¢ | $179.94 | — | -$179.94 | |
| └ Utah leg | Utahavg 81.5¢ | $161.43 | $198.18 | +$36.76 | |
LR lryyyCTR | Wildavg 25.6¢ | $164.42 | — | -$164.42 | — |
HRTrading<$100 | Utahavg 74.1¢ | $47.97 | $64.7 | +$16.73 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Wildavg 28.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 3236-2169 (5405) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Wildavg 30.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$341.36
Value
$198.18
PnL
-$143.18
Record
60%
9276-6223 (15499)
Both legs:
Wild$179.9425.2¢-$179.94
Utah$161.4381.5¢+$36.76
LR
lryyyCTRInvested
$164.42
Value
—
PnL
-$164.42
Record
—
HRTrading<$100Invested
$47.97
Value
$64.7
PnL
+$16.73
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
SH
shiifooCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
3236-2169 (5405)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xad631dd4...fdfa12
Slug
nhl-min-utah-2026-10-27-spread-away-3pt5