Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wild, while the market favors Utah (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Wild (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (40%) · Wild at 45¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Wild45¢Utah55¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wild

Consensus Traders

Wild 40%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$23.36

Smart Money Entry

27.5¢ → 44.5¢

+62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWild at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wild45%

Utah56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wild2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,290

Combined PnL+$34.63

Utah3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,114

Combined PnL-$11.27

Wild — 40%Utah — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Wildavg 27.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$20.9	53% 112-101 (213)
0xheavy888	Utahavg 72¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Wildavg 20.5¢	$62.52	$76.25	+$13.73	63% 7960-4740 (12700)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Utahavg 73.2¢	$54.18	$53.28	-$1.27	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Utahavg 72¢	$28.8	$28.8	-$0	54% 2891-2482 (5373)

taylorsversionCTR

Wild

Invested

$2,494.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$20.9

Record

53%

112-101 (213)

0xheavy888

Utah

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

torta.techCTR<$100

Wild

Invested

$62.52

Value

$76.25

PnL

+$13.73

Record

63%

7960-4740 (12700)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Utah

Invested

$54.18

Value

$53.28

PnL

-$1.27

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Utah

Invested

$28.8

Value

$28.8

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

Research grade

NeutralWild at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.