Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Wild, while the market favors Utah (53%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wild vs. Utah
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (75%) · Wild at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Wild
4
Wild 75%
$1.5K
-$18.2
46.5¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWild at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Wildavg 47¢ | $846 | $828 | -$27 | 49% 255-263 (518) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Wildavg 46¢ | $548.74 | $554.71 | +$5.96 | 53% 112-101 (213) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Wildavg 45¢ | $90 | $93 | +$3 | 56% 6836-5476 (12312) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Utahavg 54¢ | $17.82 | $17.65 | -$0.17 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$846
Value
$828
PnL
-$27
Record
49%
255-263 (518)
Invested
$548.74
Value
$554.71
PnL
+$5.96
Record
53%
112-101 (213)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$90
Value
$93
PnL
+$3
Record
56%
6836-5476 (12312)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$17.65
PnL
-$0.17
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.