Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Canadiens, while the market favors Wild (54%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wild vs. Canadiens
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (63%) · Canadiens at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Canadiens
8
Canadiens 63%
$6.1K
-$26
46.6¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanadiens at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Wildavg 53.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$18.49 | 52% 119-111 (230) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Canadiensavg 46.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$16.66 | 0% 0-29 (29) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Canadiensavg 46¢ | $761.01 | $769.28 | +$8.27 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Canadiensavg 46¢ | $92 | $93 | +$1 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Canadiensavg 47¢ | $47 | $46.5 | -$0.5 | 48% 391-428 (819) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Canadiensavg 46.7¢ | $36.03 | $35.86 | -$0.17 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Wildavg 52¢ | $11.34 | $11.78 | +$0.44 | 5% 6-120 (126) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Wildavg 52¢ | $2.9 | $3.01 | +$0.11 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
nigiri99Invested
$2,619.12
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$18.49
Record
52%
119-111 (230)
Invested
$2,599.73
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$16.66
Record
0%
0-29 (29)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$761.01
Value
$769.28
PnL
+$8.27
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$92
Value
$93
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
Invested
$47
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
391-428 (819)
Invested
$36.03
Value
$35.86
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
Invested
$11.34
Value
$11.78
PnL
+$0.44
Record
5%
6-120 (126)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.