Golden Knights vs. Penguins

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (29%) · Penguins at 52¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 4

Golden Knights49¢Penguins51¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penguins

Consensus Traders

Penguins 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

$28.94

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights49%

Penguins52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penguins4 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares44,554

Combined PnL-$173.93

Golden Knights10 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares19,874

Combined PnL+$202.87

Penguins — 29%Golden Knights — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePenguins 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Penguinsavg 50¢	$19.0K	$19.0K	+$0	45% 89-111 (200)
RO roldyCTR	Golden Knightsavg 48¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$120	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
GA gagarin59CTR	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$41.66	51% 766-737 (1503)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Penguinsavg 53.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$124.63	53% 642-561 (1203)
JO jole24CTR	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30	44% 1043-1310 (2353)
VeryLucky888CTR	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	58% 44584-32454 (77038)
SE sentrioCTR	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 25241-24955 (50196)
OM omnibus-076daa	Penguinsavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$52.4	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 48.2¢	$989.92	$852.11	+$14.68	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 48.2¢	$580.38	$584.27	+$3.89
└ Penguins leg	Penguinsavg 50¢	$260.04	$267.84	+$10.79
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	53% 5820-5227 (11047)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 49.5¢	$421.97	$423.4	+$1.43	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 49.5¢	$212.36	$214.69	+$2.33
└ Penguins leg	Penguinsavg 50.2¢	$209.61	$208.72	-$0.9
nigiri99	Penguinsavg 50¢	$310	$310	+$3.1	46% 8241-9613 (17854)
0xheavy888CTR	Golden Knightsavg 49¢	$196	$200	+$4	56% 7597-6087 (13684)
FO forecastication4CTR	Golden Knightsavg 47¢	$118.72	$126.3	+$7.58	50% 1288-1311 (2599)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$70.25	$70.25	-$0.7	53% 913-807 (1720)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Golden Knightsavg 48.7¢	$12.88	$2.52	+$0.34	58% 18577-13713 (32290)

chubbytoro

Penguins

Invested

$19,000

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

89-111 (200)

roldyCTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$2,879.99

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$120

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

gagarin59CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$2,028.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$41.66

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Penguins

Invested

$2,043.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$124.63

Record

53%

642-561 (1203)

jole24CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30

Record

44%

1043-1310 (2353)

VeryLucky888CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,356.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

sentrioCTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,111.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25241-24955 (50196)

omnibus-076daa

Penguins

Invested

$1,090.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$52.4

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$989.92

Value

$852.11

PnL

+$14.68

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$580.3848.2¢+$3.89

Penguins$260.0450¢+$10.79

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5820-5227 (11047)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$421.97

Value

$423.4

PnL

+$1.43

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$212.3649.5¢+$2.33

Penguins$209.6150.2¢-$0.9

nigiri99

Penguins

Invested

$310

Value

$310

PnL

+$3.1

Record

46%

8241-9613 (17854)

0xheavy888CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$196

Value

$200

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

7597-6087 (13684)

forecastication4CTR

Golden Knights

Invested

$118.72

Value

$126.3

PnL

+$7.58

Record

50%

1288-1311 (2599)

VenusianCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$70.25

Value

$70.25

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$12.88

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePenguins 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedGolden Knights 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penguins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.