Golden Knights vs. Sabres

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (38%) · Golden Knights at 53¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 8

Golden Knights53¢Sabres47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Golden Knights

Consensus Traders

Golden Knights 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.6K

Combined PnL

$502.75

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Golden Knights53%

Sabres48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights5 traders

Total Value$25.6K

Total Shares49,731

Combined PnL+$405.85

Sabres8 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares30,181

Combined PnL+$96.9

Golden Knights — 38%Sabres — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sabres) and the top 1000 (5 on Golden Knights) disagree here.

whaleGolden Knights 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSabres 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Golden Knightsavg 50.6¢	$22.1K	$22.5K	+$373.7	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
CH ChonkVisionCTR	Sabresavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$100	55% 243-196 (439)
RO royalestakeCTR	Sabresavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	47% 425-472 (897)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sabresavg 48.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
CO cocococococo	Golden Knightsavg 50.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.18	52% 1789-1619 (3408)
HO HomeRunHazard	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$998.34	$1.0K	+$29.95	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
LI LightParadox	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$779.85	$772.05	-$7.8	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
0xheavy888CTR	Sabresavg 50¢	$332.99	$336.32	+$3.33	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
PI PIPIZINCTR	Sabresavg 49¢	$301.34	$298.27	-$3.07	51% 464-452 (916)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sabresavg 49¢	$294	$291	-$3	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Golden Knightsavg 50.3¢	$124.5	$126.25	+$1.75	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Golden Knights leg	Golden Knightsavg 50.3¢	$75.5	$78.75	+$3.25
└ Sabres leg	Sabresavg 49¢	$49	$47.5	-$1.5
WE westing.v1	Golden Knightsavg 50¢	$118.83	$117.64	-$1.19	50% 61-62 (123)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sabresavg 49¢	$27.13	$26.85	-$0.28	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Sabresavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.38	-$0.08	49% 8555-8731 (17286)

nigiri99

Golden Knights

Invested

$22,139.52

Value

$22.5K

PnL

+$373.7

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

ChonkVisionCTR

Sabres

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

243-196 (439)

royalestakeCTR

Sabres

Invested

$2,119.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

425-472 (897)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sabres

Invested

$1,940

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

cocococococo

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,114.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.18

Record

52%

1789-1619 (3408)

HomeRunHazard

Golden Knights

Invested

$998.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.95

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

LightParadox

Golden Knights

Invested

$779.85

Value

$772.05

PnL

-$7.8

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

0xheavy888CTR

Sabres

Invested

$332.99

Value

$336.32

PnL

+$3.33

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

PIPIZINCTR

Sabres

Invested

$301.34

Value

$298.27

PnL

-$3.07

Record

51%

464-452 (916)

38791873984189CTR

Sabres

Invested

$294

Value

$291

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9XARB<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$124.5

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Golden Knights$75.550.3¢+$3.25

Sabres$4949¢-$1.5

westing.v1

Golden Knights

Invested

$118.83

Value

$117.64

PnL

-$1.19

Record

50%

61-62 (123)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$27.13

Value

$26.85

PnL

-$0.28

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

RLWGCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Golden Knights. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sabres) and the top 1000 (5 on Golden Knights) disagree here.

whaleGolden Knights 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSabres 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Golden Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.