Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kings vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$4.0K
-$9.82
45¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$24.15 | 46% 366-422 (788) |
PU purplegatto | Overavg 55¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$13.96 | 50% 5746-5846 (11592) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 55¢ | $216.7 | $195.03 | -$21.67 | 50% 6745-6755 (13500) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $31.5 | $35.35 | +$3.85 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $18.21 | $16.39 | -$1.82 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $4.35 | $3.98 | -$0.36 | 54% 2267-1955 (4222) |
Invested
$2,173.42
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$24.15
Record
46%
366-422 (788)
Invested
$1,536.15
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$13.96
Record
50%
5746-5846 (11592)
Invested
$216.7
Value
$195.03
PnL
-$21.67
Record
50%
6745-6755 (13500)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$35.35
PnL
+$3.85
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$18.21
Value
$16.39
PnL
-$1.82
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$3.98
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
2267-1955 (4222)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.