Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Panthers vs. Jets: O/U 5.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 23¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$64.59

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 23¢

-48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares9,446

Combined PnL-$73.26

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,922

Combined PnL+$8.67

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO royalestakeCTR	Underavg 44¢	$6.0K	$2.6K	-$30	46% 366-422 (788)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0	51% 1228-1166 (2394)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	Underavg 44¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$721.8	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$1.6K	$868.02	-$723.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$173.04	$234.84	+$1.55
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$1.82	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$559.49	$518.05	-$41.44	53% 3090-2717 (5807)
RN1	Overavg 52¢	$486.71	$496.07	+$9.36	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
0xheavy888	Overavg 56¢	$350	$350	-$0	56% 6856-5494 (12350)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 56.5¢	$78.53	$77.84	-$0.69	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 57¢	$12.54	$12.32	+$0	54% 2891-2482 (5373)

royalestakeCTR

Under

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

46%

366-422 (788)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$1,232

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1228-1166 (2394)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,120

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,764.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$721.8

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

Both legs:

Under$1,591.3744¢-$723.35

Over$173.0456¢+$1.55

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,005.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$1.82

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Under

Invested

$559.49

Value

$518.05

PnL

-$41.44

Record

53%

3090-2717 (5807)

RN1

Over

Invested

$486.71

Value

$496.07

PnL

+$9.36

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$78.53

Value

$77.84

PnL

-$0.69

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$12.54

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.