Spread: Jets (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (80%) · Panthers at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Jets27¢Panthers73¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 80%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$0.88

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 73.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets27%

Panthers74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,769

Combined PnL+$18.32

Jets1 trader

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,593

Combined PnL-$17.45

Panthers — 80%Jets — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Panthersavg 74¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$17.72	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Jetsavg 25.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$17.45	47% 77-86 (163)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Panthersavg 74.5¢	$78.22	$78.23	+$0	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
0xheavy888<$100	Panthersavg 74¢	$74	$74.5	+$0.5	56% 6841-5479 (12320)
GH ghorrock<$100	Panthersavg 74¢	$14.16	$14.26	+$0.1	57% 12909-9833 (22742)

HomeRunHazard

Panthers

Invested

$2,623

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$17.72

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

chubbytoroCTR

Jets

Invested

$1,443.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$17.45

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Panthers

Invested

$78.22

Value

$78.23

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

0xheavy888<$100

Panthers

Invested

$74

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

6841-5479 (12320)

ghorrock<$100

Panthers

Invested

$14.16

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

12909-9833 (22742)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.