Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Panthers (79%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (50%) · Jets at 21¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Panthers79¢Jets21¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 21¢

-69% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJets at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers79%

Jets21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares12,660

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Panthers2 traders

Total Value$14.46

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$0.08

Jets — 50%Panthers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Jetsavg 68¢	$12.7K	$2.4K	$-6.2K	47% 77-86 (163)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Panthersavg 31¢	$5.05	$12.88	+$0.08	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
HRTrading<$100	Panthersavg 79¢	$1.58	$1.58	+$0	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Jetsavg 29¢	$1.81	$1.31	-$0.5	57% 13006-9921 (22927)

chubbytoroCTR

Jets

Invested

$12,653.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-6.2K

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Panthers

Invested

$5.05

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

HRTrading<$100

Panthers

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.5

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

Research grade

AvoidJets at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 79%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.