Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Panthers (55%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Panthers vs. Jets
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (43%) · Jets at 46¢ · $43K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
7
Jets 43%
$42.7K
$507.99
46.1¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Jetsavg 46¢ | $29.9K | $30.5K | +$650 | 47% 77-86 (163) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Jetsavg 47¢ | $4.3K | $4.1K | -$136.11 | 50% 6752-6755 (13507) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Panthersavg 54¢ | $3.7K | $3.6K | -$68.4 | 48% 498-531 (1029) |
RO roldy | Panthersavg 53¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$30.01 | 55% 1404-1163 (2567) |
 VeryLucky888 | Panthersavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$30.11 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
 0xheavy888 | Panthersavg 53¢ | $106 | $106 | +$1 | 56% 6853-5493 (12346) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 45.3¢ | $36.75 | $38.13 | +$1.38 | 57% 12963-9878 (22841) |
Invested
$29,899.98
Value
$30.5K
PnL
+$650
Record
47%
77-86 (163)
Invested
$4,264.78
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$136.11
Record
50%
6752-6755 (13507)
Invested
$3,693.75
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$68.4
Record
48%
498-531 (1029)
Invested
$3,179.99
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
55%
1404-1163 (2567)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,071.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$30.11
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
0xheavy888Invested
$106
Value
$106
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
6853-5493 (12346)
Invested
$36.75
Value
$38.13
PnL
+$1.38
Record
57%
12963-9878 (22841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.