Panthers vs. Blues: O/U 6.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 55¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 55¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,892

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,909

Combined PnL-$8.33

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58.1¢	$3.4K	$2.2K	$-1.2K	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 42¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$24.52	56% 541-433 (974)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 41¢	$430.5	$430.5	+$0	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41.6¢	$324.51	$319.81	-$4.7	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 41.8¢	$132.43	$129.97	-$2.46	47% 339-375 (714)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 43.1¢	$82.32	$99.22	+$16.91	35% 166-306 (472)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$28.82	$35.26	+$6.44	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 61¢	$45.75	$27	-$18.75	53% 310-274 (584)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$11.59	$11.59	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,377.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,056.59

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$24.52

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$430.5

Value

$430.5

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$324.51

Value

$319.81

PnL

-$4.7

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$132.43

Value

$129.97

PnL

-$2.46

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.32

Value

$99.22

PnL

+$16.91

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.82

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$6.44

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$45.75

Value

$27

PnL

-$18.75

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.