Spread: Blues (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (60%) · Panthers at 70¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 15

Blues31¢Panthers69¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 60%

Total Value

$42.4K

Combined PnL

$29.11

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blues31%

Panthers70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers6 traders

Total Value$29.1K

Total Shares41,822

Combined PnL-$199.11

Blues4 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares43,652

Combined PnL+$228.22

Panthers — 60%Blues — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPanthers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Panthersavg 70¢	$25.3K	$25.1K	-$180.74	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Bluesavg 30¢	$12.7K	$12.9K	+$211.87	38% 16-26 (42)
VeryLucky888	Panthersavg 70¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$18	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
0xheavy888	Panthersavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	56% 541-433 (974)
nigiri99CTR	Bluesavg 28¢	$185.92	$199.2	+$13.28	52% 602-565 (1167)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bluesavg 30¢	$180	$183	+$3	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Panthersavg 70¢	$37.8	$37.53	-$0.27	47% 339-375 (714)
PA Pan9X<$100	Panthersavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.5	+$0	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bluesavg 30¢	$4.22	$4.29	+$0.07	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Panthersavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.5	-$0.1	41% 708-1019 (1727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Panthers

Invested

$25,303.27

Value

$25.1K

PnL

-$180.74

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

chubbytoroCTR

Blues

Invested

$12,712.22

Value

$12.9K

PnL

+$211.87

Record

38%

16-26 (42)

VeryLucky888

Panthers

Invested

$2,520

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$18

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

0xheavy888

Panthers

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

nigiri99CTR

Blues

Invested

$185.92

Value

$199.2

PnL

+$13.28

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

38791873984189CTR

Blues

Invested

$180

Value

$183

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Panthers

Invested

$37.8

Value

$37.53

PnL

-$0.27

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Pan9X<$100

Panthers

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Blues

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

ameisgoat11<$100

Panthers

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPanthers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.