Spread: Panthers (-1.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (27%) · Blues at 73¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Panthers27¢Blues73¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blues

Consensus Traders

Blues 27%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$7.59

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 73¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Panthers27%

Blues73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blues3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,289

Combined PnL+$83.12

Panthers8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares7,156

Combined PnL-$90.71

Blues — 27%Panthers — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanthers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bluesavg 72¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$41.83	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
0xheavy888	Bluesavg 71.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$39.32	55% 522-427 (949)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Panthersavg 28¢	$764.12	$723.19	-$40.93	46% 82-98 (180)
nigiri99CTR	Panthersavg 28.2¢	$649.09	$622.35	-$26.74	51% 579-546 (1125)
PU purplegattoCTR	Panthersavg 28¢	$498.12	$480.33	-$17.79	68% 2648-1235 (3883)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Bluesavg 72¢	$94.32	$96.29	+$1.96	47% 319-356 (675)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Panthersavg 28¢	$85.4	$80.83	-$4.58	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 28¢	$3.92	$3.71	-$0.21	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Panthersavg 28¢	$3.84	$3.63	-$0.21	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Panthersavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.33	-$0.17	46% 516-615 (1131)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Panthersavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.33	-$0.07	41% 706-1015 (1721)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Blues

Invested

$2,007.8

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$41.83

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

0xheavy888

Blues

Invested

$1,701.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$39.32

Record

55%

522-427 (949)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Panthers

Invested

$764.12

Value

$723.19

PnL

-$40.93

Record

46%

82-98 (180)

nigiri99CTR

Panthers

Invested

$649.09

Value

$622.35

PnL

-$26.74

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

purplegattoCTR

Panthers

Invested

$498.12

Value

$480.33

PnL

-$17.79

Record

68%

2648-1235 (3883)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Blues

Invested

$94.32

Value

$96.29

PnL

+$1.96

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$85.4

Value

$80.83

PnL

-$4.58

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.71

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.17

Record

46%

516-615 (1131)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPanthers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blues wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.