Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Stars (56%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Panthers vs. Stars

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (20%) · Panthers at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Panthers44¢Stars56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 20%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$92.78

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 43.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers44%

Stars56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,005

Combined PnL+$30.2

Stars8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,410

Combined PnL+$62.59

Panthers — 20%Stars — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStars 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldyCTR	Panthersavg 45¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$30	47% 20-23 (43)
FO Forecastication2	Starsavg 55¢	$876.45	$900.35	+$23.9	44% 337-422 (759)
PU purplegatto	Starsavg 55¢	$788.15	$809.64	+$21.49	68% 2675-1265 (3940)
HO HomeRunHazard	Starsavg 55¢	$490	$503.36	+$13.36	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
QW qWOprt7	Starsavg 55¢	$100	$100	-$0	8% 8-88 (96)
WE westing.v1<$100	Starsavg 55¢	$94.07	$96.64	+$2.57	24% 35-109 (144)
PA Pan9X<$100	Starsavg 55.3¢	$57.25	$58.5	+$1.26	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
GH ghorrock<$100	Starsavg 55¢	$14.89	$14.89	-$0	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Starsavg 55¢	$4.87	$4.87	+$0	46% 621-730 (1351)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Panthersavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.25	+$0.2	48% 3948-4293 (8241)

roldyCTR

Panthers

Invested

$2,699.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$30

Record

47%

20-23 (43)

Forecastication2

Stars

Invested

$876.45

Value

$900.35

PnL

+$23.9

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

purplegatto

Stars

Invested

$788.15

Value

$809.64

PnL

+$21.49

Record

68%

2675-1265 (3940)

HomeRunHazard

Stars

Invested

$490

Value

$503.36

PnL

+$13.36

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

qWOprt7

Stars

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

-$0

Record

8-88 (96)

westing.v1<$100

Stars

Invested

$94.07

Value

$96.64

PnL

+$2.57

Record

24%

35-109 (144)

Pan9X<$100

Stars

Invested

$57.25

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$1.26

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

ghorrock<$100

Stars

Invested

$14.89

Value

$14.89

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Stars

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStars 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.