Panthers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 13%
$2.9K
$0.14
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestake | Overavg 55¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$0 | 1% 1-177 (178) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $844.36 | $844.36 | -$0 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $115.65 | $115.65 | -$0 | 48% 603-645 (1248) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $82.35 | $82.35 | +$0 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $5.85 | $5.85 | +$0 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $3.93 | $4.02 | +$0.09 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.26 | $2.26 | +$0 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.25 | +$0.05 | 6% 27-405 (432) |
Invested
$1,816.13
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
1%
1-177 (178)
Invested
$844.36
Value
$844.36
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$115.65
Value
$115.65
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
603-645 (1248)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$82.35
Value
$82.35
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$3.93
Value
$4.02
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.26
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
6%
27-405 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.