Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (100%) · Panthers at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Panthers
5
Panthers 100%
$1.3K
-$571.46
72¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPanthers at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Panthersavg 72¢ | $1.3K | $935.72 | -$411.71 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189 | Panthersavg 72¢ | $359.28 | $249.5 | -$109.78 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
 0xheavy888 | Panthersavg 72.5¢ | $145 | $100 | -$45 | 56% 99-79 (178) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Panthersavg 72¢ | $10.8 | $7.5 | -$3.3 | 48% 407-442 (849) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Panthersavg 72¢ | $5.44 | $3.78 | -$1.66 | 51% 256-245 (501) |
Invested
$1,347.43
Value
$935.72
PnL
-$411.71
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$359.28
Value
$249.5
PnL
-$109.78
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
0xheavy888Invested
$145
Value
$100
PnL
-$45
Record
56%
99-79 (178)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
407-442 (849)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$1.66
Record
51%
256-245 (501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.