Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Panthers (52%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Panthers vs. Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (38%) · Blue Jackets at 49¢ · $78K held · ends Nov 11

Panthers52¢Blue Jackets48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 38%

Total Value

$78.4K

Combined PnL

-$237.27

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Panthers52%

Blue Jackets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets3 traders

Total Value$42.5K

Total Shares87,619

Combined PnL+$437.85

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$35.9K

Total Shares70,409

Combined PnL-$675.12

Blue Jackets — 38%Panthers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBlue Jackets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 48¢	$42.0K	$42.4K	+$437.45	53% 95-83 (178)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Panthersavg 52¢	$33.6K	$33.0K	-$646.16	54% 1624-1378 (3002)
HO HomeRunHazard	Panthersavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.18	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888	Panthersavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	49% 231-238 (469)
0xheavy888	Panthersavg 52¢	$104	$103	-$1	55% 106-85 (191)
WE westing.v1<$100	Panthersavg 52¢	$81.6	$80.82	-$0.78	5% 3-62 (65)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 48¢	$95.7	$48.2	+$0.5	48% 420-450 (870)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 48.3¢	$14.12	$14.02	-$0.1	50% 274-269 (543)

taylorsversionCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$41,995.43

Value

$42.4K

PnL

+$437.45

Record

53%

95-83 (178)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Panthers

Invested

$33,600.41

Value

$33.0K

PnL

-$646.16

Record

54%

1624-1378 (3002)

HomeRunHazard

Panthers

Invested

$1,786.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.18

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

VeryLucky888

Panthers

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

0xheavy888

Panthers

Invested

$104

Value

$103

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

westing.v1<$100

Panthers

Invested

$81.6

Value

$80.82

PnL

-$0.78

Record

3-62 (65)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$95.7

Value

$48.2

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.02

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBlue Jackets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.