Oilers vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$3.4K
$11.88
49.9¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBack | Underavg 50.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$13.43 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $862 | $853.38 | -$8.62 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Underavg 49.3¢ | $504.93 | $517.36 | +$12.43 | 54% 2337-2025 (4362) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $513.42 | $508.29 | -$5.13 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $14.14 | $13.99 | -$0.14 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
ComingBackInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$13.43
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$862
Value
$853.38
PnL
-$8.62
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$504.93
Value
$517.36
PnL
+$12.43
Record
54%
2337-2025 (4362)
Invested
$513.42
Value
$508.29
PnL
-$5.13
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$14.14
Value
$13.99
PnL
-$0.14
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.