Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oilers, while the market favors Rangers (53%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Oilers vs. Rangers
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (29%) · Oilers at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Oilers
7
Oilers 29%
$6.8K
$100.69
46.5¢ → 47.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOilers at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 53%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Oilersavg 46¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$90 | 55% 1429-1185 (2614) |
LI Libratus007CTR | Oilersavg 47¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$27.17 | — 12-1 (13) |
 VeryLucky888 | Rangersavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$10 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Rangersavg 54¢ | $181.44 | $178.08 | -$5.04 | 53% 452-395 (847) |
 0xheavy888 | Rangersavg 53¢ | $106 | $105 | -$1 | 55% 7306-5879 (13185) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Rangersavg 53¢ | $43.46 | $43.46 | -$0.41 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Rangersavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | -$0.03 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
Invested
$2,760
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$90
Record
55%
1429-1185 (2614)
Invested
$2,553.95
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$27.17
Record
—
12-1 (13)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,060
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$181.44
Value
$178.08
PnL
-$5.04
Record
53%
452-395 (847)
0xheavy888Invested
$106
Value
$105
PnL
-$1
Record
55%
7306-5879 (13185)
Invested
$43.46
Value
$43.46
PnL
-$0.41
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.