Oilers vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (21%) · Under at 82¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 31

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 21%

Total Value

$40.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 81.5¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$34.9K

Total Shares43,135

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares29,015

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagen	Underavg 57.2¢	$24.6K	$34.9K	+$3.6K	45% 57-69 (126)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 43¢	$4.8K	$2.1K	$-3.2K	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.2K	$961.21	$-1.4K	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 42¢	$1.0K	$457.71	-$662.48	49% 1168-1197 (2365)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 46¢	$538.04	$423.91	-$114.13	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 43¢	$941.41	$415.53	-$624.29	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 42.5¢	$892	$399	-$493	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 43¢	$683.92	$346.52	-$337.4	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 43¢	$260.96	$107.74	-$140.22	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 43.3¢	$152.83	$67.07	-$85.76	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 50¢	$19.92	$32.27	+$12.35	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$42.48	$27.36	-$15.12	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 51¢	$16.44	$25.99	+$9.56	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 31.4¢	$6.36	$4.78	-$1.58	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

fraagen

Under

Invested

$24,612.24

Value

$34.9K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

45%

57-69 (126)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,778

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$2,175.37

Value

$961.21

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,011.78

Value

$457.71

PnL

-$662.48

Record

49%

1168-1197 (2365)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$538.04

Value

$423.91

PnL

-$114.13

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$941.41

Value

$415.53

PnL

-$624.29

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$892

Value

$399

PnL

-$493

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$683.92

Value

$346.52

PnL

-$337.4

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$260.96

Value

$107.74

PnL

-$140.22

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$152.83

Value

$67.07

PnL

-$85.76

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$19.92

Value

$32.27

PnL

+$12.35

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.48

Value

$27.36

PnL

-$15.12

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$16.44

Value

$25.99

PnL

+$9.56

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.36

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.