Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Oilers vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 37¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$4.9K
-$451.12
48.2¢ → 36.5¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Overavg 56¢ | $3.2K | $2.7K | -$452.24 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 74¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$210 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 26.1¢ | $594.8 | $801.6 | +$206.8 | 48% 943-1015 (1958) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $43.69 | $47.02 | +$3.33 | 53% 3195-2820 (6015) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 35.1¢ | $16.19 | $16.82 | +$0.63 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $1.08 | $1.43 | +$0.35 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$3,165.67
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$452.24
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$1,480
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$210
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$594.8
Value
$801.6
PnL
+$206.8
Record
48%
943-1015 (1958)
Invested
$43.69
Value
$47.02
PnL
+$3.33
Record
53%
3195-2820 (6015)
Invested
$16.19
Value
$16.82
PnL
+$0.63
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.43
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.