Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (67%) · Oilers at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Oilers
6
Oilers 67%
$2.6K
$119.61
74¢ → 98¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOilers at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Oilersavg 74¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$20 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Islandersavg 26¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$97.81 | 52% 127-116 (243) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Oilersavg 73¢ | $16.79 | $22.6 | +$1.73 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oilersavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.65 | -$0.03 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Oilersavg 87¢ | $1.74 | $1.97 | +$0.23 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Islandersavg 12¢ | $0.14 | $0.02 | -$0.12 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
0xheavy888Invested
$1,480
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$20
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$1,016.97
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$97.81
Record
52%
127-116 (243)
Invested
$16.79
Value
$22.6
PnL
+$1.73
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
$1.97
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.12
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.