Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oilers, while the market favors Islanders (69%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (50%) · Oilers at 32¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Oilers32¢Islanders68¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$23.06

Smart Money Entry

32.7¢ → 31.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Oilers32%

Islanders69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,120

Combined PnL-$30.09

Islanders4 traders

Total Value$645.89

Total Shares950

Combined PnL+$7.03

Oilers — 50%Islanders — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpIslanders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedIslanders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Islanders 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Oilersavg 33¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$21.48	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Oilersavg 32¢	$575	$566.02	-$8.98	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
TA taylorsversion	Islandersavg 68¢	$332.98	$335.43	+$2.45	52% 127-116 (243)
0xheavy888	Islandersavg 66¢	$150.86	$154.28	+$3.43	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Islandersavg 66¢	$93.3	$95.42	+$0.71	74% 6672-2394 (9066)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Islandersavg 66¢	$59.4	$60.75	+$0.45	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Oilersavg 32¢	$6.08	$6.18	+$0.09	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
poshposhCTR<$100	Oilersavg 30¢	$2.4	$2.6	+$0.28	59% 10160-7156 (17316)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Oilers

Invested

$1,417.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$21.48

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Oilers

Invested

$575

Value

$566.02

PnL

-$8.98

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

taylorsversion

Islanders

Invested

$332.98

Value

$335.43

PnL

+$2.45

Record

52%

127-116 (243)

0xheavy888

Islanders

Invested

$150.86

Value

$154.28

PnL

+$3.43

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Islanders

Invested

$93.3

Value

$95.42

PnL

+$0.71

Record

74%

6672-2394 (9066)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Islanders

Invested

$59.4

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$6.08

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

poshposhCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Oilers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpIslanders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOilers 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedIslanders 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Islanders 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.