Oilers vs. Devils

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (40%) · Devils at 60¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 4

Oilers41¢Devils59¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Devils

Consensus Traders

Devils 40%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

-$54.53

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oilers41%

Devils60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Devils6 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares17,650

Combined PnL+$13.35

Oilers9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares21,850

Combined PnL-$67.87

Devils — 40%Oilers — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Devils) and the top 1000 (14 on Oilers) disagree here.

whaleOilers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOilers 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Oilers 57% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Devilsavg 59¢	$9.2K	$5.5K	+$46.3	52% 920-866 (1786)
CO cocococococo	Devilsavg 59.9¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$34.32	52% 1670-1541 (3211)
yabanciCTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$34.99	51% 81-79 (160)
RO roldyCTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$29.99	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
EG EgorkasxxCTR	Oilersavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$20.76	52% 54-50 (104)
GA gagarin59CTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$999.99	$987.8	-$12.2	51% 763-735 (1498)
VeryLucky888CTR	Oilersavg 41¢	$820	$810	-$10	58% 44366-32277 (76643)
38 38791873984189	Devils	$119.77	$119.77	+$1.06	48% 14253-15743 (29996)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Oilersavg 41¢	$92.42	$91.29	-$1.13	50% 20079-20419 (40498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Devilsavg 59.4¢	$45.7	$42.31	+$0.07	57% 17871-13366 (31237)
SE sentrio<$100	Devilsavg 59¢	$15.55	$15.68	+$0.13	50% 25200-24902 (50102)
nigiri99<$100	Devilsavg 59¢	$12.98	$13.09	+$0.11	46% 8203-9568 (17771)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Oilersavg 42¢	$6.72	$6.48	-$0.24	58% 2681-1978 (4659)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Oilersavg 41¢	$5.41	$5.35	-$0.07	51% 11581-10970 (22551)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Oilersavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.03	-$0.03	52% 8412-7681 (16093)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Devils

Invested

$9,247.37

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$46.3

Record

52%

920-866 (1786)

cocococococo

Devils

Invested

$4,841.5

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$34.32

Record

52%

1670-1541 (3211)

yabanciCTR

Oilers

Invested

$2,869.92

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$34.99

Record

51%

81-79 (160)

roldyCTR

Oilers

Invested

$2,459.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.99

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

EgorkasxxCTR

Oilers

Invested

$1,660.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$20.76

Record

52%

54-50 (104)

gagarin59CTR

Oilers

Invested

$999.99

Value

$987.8

PnL

-$12.2

Record

51%

763-735 (1498)

VeryLucky888CTR

Oilers

Invested

$820

Value

$810

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

44366-32277 (76643)

38791873984189

Devils

Invested

$119.77

Value

$119.77

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

14253-15743 (29996)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$92.42

Value

$91.29

PnL

-$1.13

Record

50%

20079-20419 (40498)

ghorrock<$100

Devils

Invested

$45.7

Value

$42.31

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

17871-13366 (31237)

sentrio<$100

Devils

Invested

$15.55

Value

$15.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

25200-24902 (50102)

nigiri99<$100

Devils

Invested

$12.98

Value

$13.09

PnL

+$0.11

Record

46%

8203-9568 (17771)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.24

Record

58%

2681-1978 (4659)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

11581-10970 (22551)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8412-7681 (16093)

Research grade

NeutralDevils at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Devils

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Devils) and the top 1000 (14 on Oilers) disagree here.

whaleOilers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOilers 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedDevils 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Oilers 57% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.