Red Wings vs. Blues: O/U 5.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 62¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$6.2K
$1.3K
46.4¢ → 61.5¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Underavg 46.5¢ | $2.3K | $3.6K | +$1.3K | 53% 95-83 (178) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$0 | 1% 2-178 (180) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 46¢ | $406.18 | $414.72 | +$17.47 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 34.5¢ | $22.45 | $22.42 | -$0.03 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $16.18 | $16.65 | +$0.47 | 55% 120-97 (217) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $9.25 | $13.78 | +$4.53 | 28% 279-730 (1009) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $8.52 | $8.89 | +$0.37 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
Invested
$2,330.59
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
53%
95-83 (178)
Invested
$2,120
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
1%
2-178 (180)
Invested
$406.18
Value
$414.72
PnL
+$17.47
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$22.45
Value
$22.42
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$16.18
Value
$16.65
PnL
+$0.47
Record
55%
120-97 (217)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$13.78
PnL
+$4.53
Record
28%
279-730 (1009)
Invested
$8.52
Value
$8.89
PnL
+$0.37
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.