Spread: Blues (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (100%) · Red Wings at 65¢ · $960 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Red Wings
5
Red Wings 100%
$960.49
$1.08
65¢ → 64.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRed Wings at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Red Wingsavg 65¢ | $841.72 | $843.05 | +$1.34 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Red Wingsavg 65¢ | $65 | $65 | +$0 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Red Wingsavg 65¢ | $33.15 | $32.9 | -$0.25 | 52% 125-115 (240) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Red Wingsavg 65¢ | $9.8 | $9.8 | +$0 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Red Wingsavg 65¢ | $9.75 | $9.75 | +$0 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
Invested
$841.72
Value
$843.05
PnL
+$1.34
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$65
Value
$65
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$33.15
Value
$32.9
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
125-115 (240)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.