Red Wings vs. Blues
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (100%) · Blues at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Blues
7
Blues 100%
$2.4K
$20.05
56¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlues at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Bluesavg 56¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10 | 47% 197-220 (417) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Bluesavg 56¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$9.01 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
 0xheavy888 | Bluesavg 56¢ | $112 | $113 | +$1 | 53% 85-74 (159) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Bluesavg 56¢ | $56 | $56.5 | +$0.5 | 48% 391-428 (819) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Bluesavg 57¢ | $33.18 | $32.61 | -$0.57 | 34% 158-308 (466) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Bluesavg 56¢ | $10.02 | $10.11 | +$0.09 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Bluesavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.82 | +$0.02 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,120
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10
Record
47%
197-220 (417)
Invested
$1,009
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
0xheavy888Invested
$112
Value
$113
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
85-74 (159)
Invested
$56
Value
$56.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
391-428 (819)
Invested
$33.18
Value
$32.61
PnL
-$0.57
Record
34%
158-308 (466)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.82
PnL
+$0.02
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.