Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (70%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 30¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over70¢Under30¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 30¢

-45% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,060

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$269.37

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$9.29

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 55.5¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	$-1.0K	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 55¢	$419.1	$422.91	+$3.81	41% 49-71 (120)
BO BoomLaLa	Overavg 65.2¢	$138.18	$147.34	+$9.16	29% 105-255 (360)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 42.4¢	$119.7	$119.85	+$0.15	43% 119-161 (280)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 36.2¢	$82.07	$101.02	+$18.95	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$374	$100	+$6	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$55	$56.5	+$6.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$44	$43.5	-$0.5
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$19.82	$20.24	+$0.42	56% 312-248 (560)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$28.42	$14.95	-$13.48	55% 211-171 (382)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$13.33	$13.45	+$0.12	53% 1117-973 (2090)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.06	-$0.12	48% 387-423 (810)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.06	-$0.12	35% 306-565 (871)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.03	38% 509-821 (1330)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,201.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$419.1

Value

$422.91

PnL

+$3.81

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

BoomLaLa

Over

Invested

$138.18

Value

$147.34

PnL

+$9.16

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$119.7

Value

$119.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$82.07

Value

$101.02

PnL

+$18.95

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$374

Value

$100

PnL

+$6

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.82

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$0.42

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.42

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$13.48

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.33

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

387-423 (810)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

35%

306-565 (871)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Over 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.