Red Wings vs. Panthers

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (35%) · Panthers at 65¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 13

Red Wings36¢Panthers64¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 35%

Total Value

$49.2K

Combined PnL

-$64.04

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 64.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Red Wings36%

Panthers65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers6 traders

Total Value$31.5K

Total Shares49,192

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Red Wings11 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares50,552

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Panthers — 35%Red Wings — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

35% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRed Wings 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Red Wings 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Panthersavg 61.6¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$68.69	— 9-3 (12)
nigiri99	Panthersavg 62¢	$8.1K	$8.5K	+$392.39	52% 388-362 (750)
CH chubbytoro	Panthersavg 61¢	$6.5K	$6.9K	+$424.69	27% 7-19 (26)
scootergene	Panthersavg 62¢	$5.4K	$5.7K	+$263.05	1% 2-137 (139)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$5.7K	$5.3K	-$450.28	41% 49-71 (120)
VeryLucky888CTR	Red Wingsavg 35.8¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$39.55	53% 852-766 (1618)
RO roldyCTR	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$180	— 8-10 (18)
BA BabooouCTR	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$180	— 8-7 (15)
RO royalestakeCTR	Red Wingsavg 39¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$220	5% 10-187 (197)
Stickman22CTR	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$120	— 8-6 (14)
GA gagarin59CTR	Red Wingsavg 35¢	$999.94	$999.95	+$0	41% 50-71 (121)
0xheavy888CTR	Red Wingsavg 35¢	$874.15	$874.15	+$0	56% 312-248 (560)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$304	$280	-$24	19% 219-917 (1136)
PA Pan9X<$100	Panthersavg 61¢	$61	$62	+$1	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Panthersavg 62¢	$49.6	$52	+$2.4	44% 177-221 (398)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$28.96	$26.67	-$2.29	53% 1117-973 (2090)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Red Wingsavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.75	-$0.15	38% 509-821 (1330)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Panthers

Invested

$10,190.06

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$68.69

Record

—

9-3 (12)

nigiri99

Panthers

Invested

$8,109.37

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$392.39

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

chubbytoro

Panthers

Invested

$6,476.5

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$424.69

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

scootergene

Panthers

Invested

$5,436.34

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$263.05

Record

2-137 (139)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$5,703.57

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$450.28

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

VeryLucky888CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$3,523.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$39.55

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

roldyCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$2,280

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$180

Record

—

8-10 (18)

BabooouCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$2,279.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$180

Record

—

8-7 (15)

royalestakeCTR

Red Wings

Invested

$2,145

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$220

Record

10-187 (197)

Stickman22CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$1,520

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$120

Record

—

8-6 (14)

gagarin59CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$999.94

Value

$999.95

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

50-71 (121)

0xheavy888CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$874.15

Value

$874.15

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Red Wings

Invested

$304

Value

$280

PnL

-$24

Record

19%

219-917 (1136)

Pan9X<$100

Panthers

Invested

$61

Value

$62

PnL

+$1

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Forecastication2<$100

Panthers

Invested

$49.6

Value

$52

PnL

+$2.4

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$28.96

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$2.29

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

6 of 17 top traders (35%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

35% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRed Wings 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Red Wings 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.