Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (100%) · Maple Leafs at 61¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Maple Leafs
5
Maple Leafs 100%
$102.37
-$0.28
60.5¢ → 60.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaple Leafs at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 60¢ | $65.82 | $66.37 | +$0.55 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 61.8¢ | $18.53 | $18 | -$0.53 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 61¢ | $11.47 | $11.28 | -$0.19 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 61¢ | $3.78 | $3.72 | -$0.06 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3 | -$0.05 | 24% 161-506 (667) |
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$65.82
Value
$66.37
PnL
+$0.55
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.53
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$11.47
Value
$11.28
PnL
-$0.19
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$3.72
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
161-506 (667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.