Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (83%) · Avalanche at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Avalanche
6
Avalanche 83%
$2.7K
-$23.07
59¢ → 58.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAvalanche at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Avalancheavg 59¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$11.11 | 0% 0-29 (29) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Avalancheavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$9.03 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
 nigiri99 | Avalancheavg 59.5¢ | $131.44 | $129.29 | -$2.15 | 52% 92-86 (178) |
WE westing.v1 | Avalancheavg 59¢ | $122.15 | $121.11 | -$1.03 | 3% 2-60 (62) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Avalancheavg 59¢ | $45.43 | $45.04 | -$0.39 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 40¢ | $10.24 | $13.48 | +$0.64 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$1,310.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$11.11
Record
0%
0-29 (29)
Invested
$1,065.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$9.03
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
nigiri99Invested
$131.44
Value
$129.29
PnL
-$2.15
Record
52%
92-86 (178)
Invested
$122.15
Value
$121.11
PnL
-$1.03
Record
3%
2-60 (62)
Invested
$45.43
Value
$45.04
PnL
-$0.39
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$13.48
PnL
+$0.64
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.