Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (78%) · Avalanche at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Canadiens32¢Avalanche68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Avalanche

Consensus Traders

Avalanche 78%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$28.47

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 68¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens32%

Avalanche68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,664

Combined PnL+$1.31

Avalanche7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,302

Combined PnL-$29.78

Canadiens — 22%Avalanche — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAvalanche 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Canadiensavg 32¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$1.22	38% 16-26 (42)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Avalancheavg 68¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$17.64	44% 44-57 (101)
OM omnibus-076daa	Avalancheavg 70¢	$272.96	$261.26	-$11.7	46% 492-580 (1072)
0xheavy888	Avalancheavg 68.5¢	$137	$135	-$2	54% 496-419 (915)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Avalancheavg 68¢	$98.6	$100.05	+$1.45	48% 286-306 (592)
PA Pan9X<$100	Avalancheavg 68.5¢	$21.91	$22.08	+$0.17	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Avalancheavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.38	-$0.02	41% 694-1010 (1704)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 30¢	$2.68	$2.77	+$0.09	46% 81-97 (178)
38 38791873984189<$100	Avalancheavg 69¢	$1	$0.97	-$0.03	48% 3214-3513 (6727)

chubbytoroCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$2,448.53

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.22

Record

38%

16-26 (42)

0x0A77exmm

Avalanche

Invested

$2,399.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$17.64

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

omnibus-076daa

Avalanche

Invested

$272.96

Value

$261.26

PnL

-$11.7

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

0xheavy888

Avalanche

Invested

$137

Value

$135

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Avalanche

Invested

$98.6

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$1.45

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Pan9X<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$21.91

Value

$22.08

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

ameisgoat11<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$2.68

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

81-97 (178)

38791873984189<$100

Avalanche

Invested

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAvalanche 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Avalanche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.