Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Avalanche vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (70%) · Over at 47¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$54.93

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 46.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,201

Combined PnL+$49.11

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,096

Combined PnL+$5.82

Over — 70%Under — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$17.63	72% 6936-2743 (9679)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$28.28	47% 2623-2923 (5546)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 43.8¢	$764.33	$794.5	+$30.17	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.8¢	$525.39	$557.77	+$32.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$238.94	$236.73	-$2.21
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 53¢	$579.82	$585.29	+$5.47	50% 7248-7347 (14595)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 45¢	$490	$500.88	+$10.89	51% 4856-4597 (9453)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 54¢	$433.81	$429.72	-$1.13	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 46¢	$234.94	$236.61	+$1.67	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 46¢	$230	$230	-$0	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53¢	$157.27	$158.75	+$1.48	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$67.5	$69	+$1.5	56% 7468-5986 (13454)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$593	$46.5	+$5.5	54% 5008-4230 (9238)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$38.16	$39.44	+$1.27	57% 17353-12958 (30311)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,406.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$17.63

Record

72%

6936-2743 (9679)

Both legs:

Under$1,904.0454¢-$17.63

Over$1,502.8846.5¢+$0

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,272.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$28.28

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$764.33

Value

$794.5

PnL

+$30.17

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Over$525.3943.8¢+$32.38

Under$238.9454¢-$2.21

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$579.82

Value

$585.29

PnL

+$5.47

Record

50%

7248-7347 (14595)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$500.88

PnL

+$10.89

Record

51%

4856-4597 (9453)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$433.81

Value

$429.72

PnL

-$1.13

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$234.94

Value

$236.61

PnL

+$1.67

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$230

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$157.27

Value

$158.75

PnL

+$1.48

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.5

Value

$69

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

7468-5986 (13454)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$593

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

54%

5008-4230 (9238)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.16

Value

$39.44

PnL

+$1.27

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.