Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Avalanche (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (60%) · Blackhawks at 33¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Blackhawks
5
Blackhawks 60%
$6.8K
$155.69
31.6¢ → 32.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlackhawks at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Blackhawksavg 32¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$50 | 47% 389-443 (832) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Blackhawksavg 31¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$109.94 | 55% 222-181 (403) |
DV dv-pm | Avalancheavg 68¢ | $975.97 | $975.97 | -$7.18 | 49% 3238-3323 (6561) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Blackhawksavg 32¢ | $161.6 | $164.13 | +$2.53 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Avalancheavg 67¢ | $53.77 | $54.17 | +$0.4 | 56% 7468-5986 (13454) |
Invested
$3,199.97
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$50
Record
47%
389-443 (832)
Invested
$2,271.72
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$109.94
Record
55%
222-181 (403)
Invested
$975.97
Value
$975.97
PnL
-$7.18
Record
49%
3238-3323 (6561)
Invested
$161.6
Value
$164.13
PnL
+$2.53
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$53.77
Value
$54.17
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
7468-5986 (13454)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.