Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Avalanche (54%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (30%) · Blue Jackets at 47¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 4

Avalanche54¢Blue Jackets46¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 30%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$333.98

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 46.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche54%

Blue Jackets47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets3 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares22,800

Combined PnL+$161.58

Avalanche7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares18,170

Combined PnL+$172.4

Blue Jackets — 30%Avalanche — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Blue Jackets) and the top 1000 (8 on Avalanche) disagree here.

whaleBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlue Jackets 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 45.5¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$179.02	45% 89-111 (200)
BA Babooou	Avalancheavg 55¢	$4.9K	$5.0K	+$45	52% 222-209 (431)
RO roldy	Avalancheavg 54¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$90	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
nigiri99CTR	Blue Jacketsavg 45.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$26.34	46% 8192-9550 (17742)
RO royalestake	Avalancheavg 55¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$15	47% 391-445 (836)
GA gagarin59CTR	Blue Jacketsavg 44¢	$782.76	$800.55	+$8.9	51% 759-729 (1488)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Avalancheavg 53¢	$194	$200	+$2	56% 7558-6050 (13608)
└ Avalanche leg	Avalancheavg 53¢	$106	$107	+$1
└ Blue Jackets leg	Blue Jacketsavg 44¢	$88	$93	+$1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Avalancheavg 54¢	$274.9	$117.21	+$9.75	47% 14178-15690 (29868)
└ Avalanche leg	Avalancheavg 54¢	$70.74	$72.71	+$1.97
└ Blue Jackets leg	Blue Jacketsavg 44¢	$44	$44.5	+$7.78
VeryLucky888	Avalancheavg 53¢	$540.22	$56.51	+$22.58	58% 44321-32237 (76558)
LI LightParadox<$100	Avalancheavg 55¢	$16.94	$16.94	+$0.15	53% 780-684 (1464)
GH ghorrock<$100	Avalancheavg 54.7¢	$14.88	$14.55	-$0.33	57% 17814-13331 (31145)
IC ic4cream<$100	Avalancheavg 55¢	$4.52	$4.52	+$0	58% 2676-1976 (4652)

chubbytoroCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$7,774.71

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$179.02

Record

45%

89-111 (200)

Babooou

Avalanche

Invested

$4,949.99

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$45

Record

52%

222-209 (431)

roldy

Avalanche

Invested

$3,239.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$90

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

nigiri99CTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$1,807.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$26.34

Record

46%

8192-9550 (17742)

royalestake

Avalanche

Invested

$1,649.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

391-445 (836)

gagarin59CTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$782.76

Value

$800.55

PnL

+$8.9

Record

51%

759-729 (1488)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$194

Value

$200

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

7558-6050 (13608)

Both legs:

Avalanche$10653¢+$1

Blue Jackets$8844¢+$1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$274.9

Value

$117.21

PnL

+$9.75

Record

47%

14178-15690 (29868)

Both legs:

Avalanche$70.7454¢+$1.97

Blue Jackets$4444¢+$7.78

VeryLucky888

Avalanche

Invested

$540.22

Value

$56.51

PnL

+$22.58

Record

58%

44321-32237 (76558)

LightParadox<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$16.94

Value

$16.94

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

780-684 (1464)

ghorrock<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$14.88

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$0.33

Record

57%

17814-13331 (31145)

ic4cream<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

2676-1976 (4652)

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Blue Jackets) and the top 1000 (8 on Avalanche) disagree here.

whaleBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlue Jackets 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlue Jackets 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.