Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Lightning (81%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (78%) · Blackhawks at 20¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 6

Blackhawks20¢Lightning80¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Blackhawks

Consensus Traders

Blackhawks 78%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$442.37

Smart Money Entry

20.2¢ → 19.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBlackhawks at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks20%

Lightning81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blackhawks7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares40,218

Combined PnL-$445.87

Lightning2 traders

Total Value$46.04

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$3.5

Blackhawks — 78%Lightning — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlackhawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpBlackhawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Blackhawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Blackhawksavg 20.3¢	$4.5K	$4.2K	-$289.69	69% 7208-3190 (10398)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Blackhawksavg 20¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$126.13	49% 437-460 (897)
VeryLucky888CTR	Blackhawksavg 19.9¢	$863.34	$847.09	-$16.24	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
GA GaditimaCTR	Blackhawksavg 20¢	$168.05	$159.65	-$8.4	48% 7382-8083 (15465)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 20.8¢	$51.02	$47.15	-$3.97	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lightningavg 74¢	$36.85	$40.09	+$3.24	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 21¢	$17.22	$15.58	-$1.64	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Blackhawksavg 19¢	$7.82	$8.03	+$0.21	56% 7916-6324 (14240)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lightningavg 76.9¢	$5.69	$5.95	+$0.26	50% 21182-21443 (42625)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$4,483.18

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$289.69

Record

69%

7208-3190 (10398)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,522.6

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$126.13

Record

49%

437-460 (897)

VeryLucky888CTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$863.34

Value

$847.09

PnL

-$16.24

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

GaditimaCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$168.05

Value

$159.65

PnL

-$8.4

Record

48%

7382-8083 (15465)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$51.02

Value

$47.15

PnL

-$3.97

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lightning

Invested

$36.85

Value

$40.09

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$17.22

Value

$15.58

PnL

-$1.64

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$0.21

Record

56%

7916-6324 (14240)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lightning

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

Research grade

AvoidBlackhawks at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlackhawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpBlackhawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Blackhawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blackhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.