Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (89%) · Red Wings at 77¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 29

Blackhawks24¢Red Wings76¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Red Wings

Consensus Traders

Red Wings 89%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$10.61

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 76.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks24%

Red Wings77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Red Wings8 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares10,640

Combined PnL-$54.58

Blackhawks1 trader

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,794

Combined PnL+$43.97

Red Wings — 89%Blackhawks — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlackhawks 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrRed Wings 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Red Wingsavg 77¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$49.76	47% 2449-2746 (5195)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Blackhawksavg 23¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$43.97	54% 122-105 (227)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Red Wingsavg 77¢	$154	$154	-$0	54% 4826-4065 (8891)
poshposh	Red Wingsavg 78¢	$111.24	$109.82	-$1.43	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
0xheavy888	Red Wingsavg 78.8¢	$125	$95.63	-$2.88	55% 6994-5612 (12606)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Red Wingsavg 78.5¢	$78.5	$77	-$1.5	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Red Wingsavg 76¢	$74.48	$75.46	+$0.98	53% 5549-4916 (10465)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Red Wingsavg 77¢	$13.86	$13.86	-$0	54% 2951-2530 (5481)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Red Wingsavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.85	-$0	47% 2177-2478 (4655)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Red Wings

Invested

$7,662.27

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$49.76

Record

47%

2449-2746 (5195)

taylorsversionCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,022.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$43.97

Record

54%

122-105 (227)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Red Wings

Invested

$154

Value

$154

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

4826-4065 (8891)

poshposh

Red Wings

Invested

$111.24

Value

$109.82

PnL

-$1.43

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

0xheavy888

Red Wings

Invested

$125

Value

$95.63

PnL

-$2.88

Record

55%

6994-5612 (12606)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$78.5

Value

$77

PnL

-$1.5

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$74.48

Value

$75.46

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

5549-4916 (10465)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

2951-2530 (5481)

ameisgoat11<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlackhawks 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrRed Wings 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Red Wings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.