Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Red Wings (59%). 4 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Blackhawks vs. Red Wings

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (25%) · Blackhawks at 42¢ · $46K held · ends Oct 29

Blackhawks42¢Red Wings58¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blackhawks

Consensus Traders

Blackhawks 25%

Total Value

$46.5K

Combined PnL

$224.87

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 41.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

4 of 16 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Red Wings 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks42%

Red Wings59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blackhawks4 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares68,325

Combined PnL-$331.77

Red Wings12 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares31,275

Combined PnL+$556.64

Blackhawks — 25%Red Wings — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Blackhawksavg 40.8¢	$15.4K	$15.7K	+$283.67	54% 122-105 (227)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Blackhawksavg 38¢	$9.3K	$8.8K	-$490.55	49% 18820-19225 (38045)
BA Babooou	Red Wingsavg 62¢	$7.4K	$7.7K	+$240	52% 211-194 (405)
RO royalestake	Red Wingsavg 62¢	$7.4K	$7.7K	+$240	46% 374-431 (805)
RO roldyCTR	Blackhawksavg 38.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$111.21	55% 1410-1176 (2586)
VeryLucky888	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$9.78	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
CO cocococococo	Red Wingsavg 63¢	$729.8	$741.88	+$12.07	52% 1649-1523 (3172)
HI hi774c	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$743.28	$736.98	-$6.3	52% 4692-4410 (9102)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$590	$640	+$50	53% 5544-4913 (10457)
HO HomeRunHazard	Red Wingsavg 60¢	$389.97	$415.97	+$26	54% 17005-14250 (31255)
HE Herdonia	Red Wingsavg 59.3¢	$271.61	$268.06	-$3.55	54% 3276-2826 (6102)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Blackhawksavg 38¢	$260.11	$246.42	-$13.69	59% 45098-31483 (76581)
0xheavy888	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$236	$234	-$2	55% 6990-5611 (12601)
GH ghorrock	Red Wingsavg 61.4¢	$98.82	$102.95	+$4.13	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
SE sentrio<$100	Red Wingsavg 60¢	$42.95	$45.81	+$2.86	50% 24876-24576 (49452)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Red Wingsavg 59.5¢	$42.24	$45.44	+$3.2	58% 28255-20837 (49092)

taylorsversionCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$15,417.05

Value

$15.7K

PnL

+$283.67

Record

54%

122-105 (227)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$9,320.41

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$490.55

Record

49%

18820-19225 (38045)

Babooou

Red Wings

Invested

$7,440

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$240

Record

52%

211-194 (405)

royalestake

Red Wings

Invested

$7,439.98

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$240

Record

46%

374-431 (805)

roldyCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,012.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$111.21

Record

55%

1410-1176 (2586)

VeryLucky888

Red Wings

Invested

$1,205.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$9.78

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

cocococococo

Red Wings

Invested

$729.8

Value

$741.88

PnL

+$12.07

Record

52%

1649-1523 (3172)

hi774c

Red Wings

Invested

$743.28

Value

$736.98

PnL

-$6.3

Record

52%

4692-4410 (9102)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Red Wings

Invested

$590

Value

$640

PnL

+$50

Record

53%

5544-4913 (10457)

HomeRunHazard

Red Wings

Invested

$389.97

Value

$415.97

PnL

+$26

Record

54%

17005-14250 (31255)

Herdonia

Red Wings

Invested

$271.61

Value

$268.06

PnL

-$3.55

Record

54%

3276-2826 (6102)

UpTheBluesCTR

Blackhawks

Invested

$260.11

Value

$246.42

PnL

-$13.69

Record

59%

45098-31483 (76581)

0xheavy888

Red Wings

Invested

$236

Value

$234

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

6990-5611 (12601)

ghorrock

Red Wings

Invested

$98.82

Value

$102.95

PnL

+$4.13

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

sentrio<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$42.95

Value

$45.81

PnL

+$2.86

Record

50%

24876-24576 (49452)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$42.24

Value

$45.44

PnL

+$3.2

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Research grade

NeutralBlackhawks at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blackhawks

4 of 16 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Red Wings 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blackhawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.