Blackhawks vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 68¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$547.91

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 68¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares15,312

Combined PnL-$548.94

Over2 traders

Total Value$17.78

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$1.03

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 70.8¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$19.03	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 71¢	$3.4K	$2.8K	-$567.24	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
RN1	Underavg 71¢	$732.01	$732.01	+$0	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
SL slimjoe	Underavg 70¢	$140	$142	+$2	51% 6503-6163 (12666)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 76¢	$38	$35.25	-$2.75	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 73¢	$30.77	$29.5	-$0.21	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 34.5¢	$13.8	$14	+$0.2	48% 933-1004 (1937)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$2.95	$3.78	+$0.83	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.73	+$0.23	57% 13827-10598 (24425)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,553.21

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$19.03

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$3,356.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$567.24

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

RN1

Under

Invested

$732.01

Value

$732.01

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

slimjoe

Under

Invested

$140

Value

$142

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

6503-6163 (12666)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$38

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$2.75

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$30.77

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.