Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Blackhawks vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 31

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$174.47

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 49.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares24,400

Combined PnL+$117.39

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,971

Combined PnL+$57.08

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 52.1¢	$10.7K	$10.8K	+$91.8	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$106.95	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$4.4K	$4.6K	+$174.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$67.66
ComingBack	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$45.95	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 52¢	$520	$565	+$45	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 48¢	$379.32	$391.17	+$11.85	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 51.9¢	$119.66	$114.04	-$5.62	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 50¢	$64.16	$63.81	-$0.36	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 45¢	$10.8	$10.44	-$0.36	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$18.02	$10.1	-$0.71	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.58	-$0.07	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$10,746.46

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$91.8

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,357.85

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$106.95

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Over$4,417.8348.1¢+$174.61

Under$1,940.0251.8¢-$67.66

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$1,500.87

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.95

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,325.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$13

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$520

Value

$565

PnL

+$45

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$379.32

Value

$391.17

PnL

+$11.85

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$119.66

Value

$114.04

PnL

-$5.62

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$64.16

Value

$63.81

PnL

-$0.36

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.02

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.71

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.