Blackhawks vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$3.0K
$51.25
58¢ → 62¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Overavg 58.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$40.25 | 52% 127-116 (243) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.46 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 38¢ | $137.15 | $138.78 | +$1.64 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $71.79 | $72.42 | +$0.63 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $50.62 | $46.97 | -$3.65 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $4.15 | $4.05 | -$0.1 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $2.31 | $2.34 | +$0.03 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
Invested
$1,614.13
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$40.25
Record
52%
127-116 (243)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$1,053.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.46
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$137.15
Value
$138.78
PnL
+$1.64
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$71.79
Value
$72.42
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$50.62
Value
$46.97
PnL
-$3.65
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.05
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
Invested
$2.31
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.03
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.